by Bryan O'Keefe

Washington Post columnist E.J. Dionne has written an important piece on the state of the labor movement that most employers should read. Dionne essentially describes a puzzling paradox with labor unions today –their membership stands at what is an all-time low, but their political influence has possibly never been stronger.

This contradicts the conventional wisdom about “dying labor unions”, but, observing events from Washington, DC, I am inclined to agree with Dionne’s analysis.

Let’s look at the current presidential race. All of the major Democratic presidential candidates have signed onto the most important aspects of labor’s legislative agenda, including the Employee Free Choice Act. There is a real reason to think that if a Democrat does win the White House in 2008, EFCA will have somebody ready to sign the bill (if only it can pass the Senate).

This is remarkably different from the political environment through much of the 90s when Democrats last controlled the White House. It’s true that Bill Clinton befriended unions during his presidential campaigns, but, once in office, he largely ignored labor’s agenda. Critically, he passed free trade agreements, which still perturb union leaders 12 years later (and has even led some unions to publicly say that they will not support his wife’s bid for the Oval Office). Clinton also did not champion any major labor law revisions (at least on the scale of EFCA) and surrounded himself with “centrist” economists. By and large, labor unions were very disappointed with his administration.

But there is real reason to think that history will not repeat itself. Dionne correctly notes that EFCA had almost unanimous support from the Democratic caucus. Some of this can be attributed to political realignment over the past 30 years – southern Democrats that once opposed labor’s agenda are now simply southern Republicans opposing labor’s agenda. But anytime you can achieve the type of support that labor was able to garner for EFCA, it is a sign that your legislation has significant strength.

So, despite their sagging membership levels, unions still wield enormous and powerful political clout, more so now that at other times when Democrats were in charge.

Bryan O’Keefe is a labor policy analyst in Washington, DC.